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Observer HOF prediction/ballot question thread


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#401 Bix

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 07:58 AM


I will take the controversial stance that when it comes to Wrestlemania, the economy and overall wrestling climate are bigger factors than the lineup, and that goes for both the gate and PPV buys.

 
With the gate you also have to factor in the local market. Does it have a large population base? Is it a traditionally strong market for WWE/wrestling in general? Is it a tourist hub? Is it easy to fly to? Lots of variables there.
And just how much of a tourist city is it? Are there factors that would turn off or just not appeal to traveling fans? I mean it's not necessarily a demographic at large that you'd expect to want to check out the New Orleans music scene, among other things.

Plus isn't New Orleans the smallest market by far to get one of the modern (city bidding/stadium show) WrestleManias? The economic impact studies usually break down local vs traveling ticket sales, don't they? I know the previous year in NY was massive for local sales.

#402 KrisZ

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 08:42 AM

New Orleans is the top Super Bowl city though so let's not get crazy about them being behind other markets

#403 El Boricua

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 08:57 AM

Another thing to consider is that it wasn't until a little under a month to go that it was made clear that Daniel Bryan would be wrestling HHH and likely be inserted into the WWE title match. Before that all anybody had to go on was Orton vs. Batista. It's a lot harder for people not from New Orleans to make plans to be at Wrestlemania with less than a month to go (when it was clear Bryan was included) than it is before that (when it was Orton vs. Batista), particularly if the initial main event was not appealing. But as has been mentioned by others, with tickets going on sale almost six months before the event (and long before any semblance of a card is revealed), it's hard to gauge what ultimate impact specific wrestlers had on ticket sales.



#404 Matt Farmer

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 10:26 AM

I think part of the reason it still did 600K on pay-per-view was because people didn't have confidence at that point that the stream would work without a hitch, and also because it wasn't rolled out initially worldwide. We have nothing to fairly compare it to, so it's hard to say whether it was a good or a bad number.

 

Looking at the card, it probably would have done the lowest PPV number since 2011 because of the lack of The Rock, if it was available on traditional pay-per-view. I'd think it would have done about a million buys worldwide though, a respectable figure.

 

And Loss, we all know if it had drawn huge, Triple H and Steph would have taken all the credit. :)

Over 400k of those 600k votes came from international buys. The first year or so the Network was not avaliable internationally (legally). 



#405 jushin muta liger

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Posted 11 November 2015 - 01:04 PM

My main issue with giving such big weight to drawing power is you have no idea whether the numbers you're working with are bullshit or not. With a lot of current puro promotions, for example, there's a big trend towards inflating the numbers to claim a sell out every time even when that isn't close to being the case, and nobody cares enough to get the real numbers out there. In a way, drawing power is an even more subjective criteria than ring work because whereas there's not much uncertainty about whether you like a match or not, with drawing your basically taking a leap of faith that the numbers aren't fudged and you know the cause behind them.


Perfect example is Dragon Gate claiming more people at their Osaka show then New Japan Power Struggle even though New Japan looked like it had more people there.

WWE does it too. Just look how they were claiming 13,500 for NXT Brooklyn and they bumped it up to over 15k on the night of.

#406 kjh

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 08:40 PM

 

 

The Baseball Hall of Fame made some changes yesterday.  They are dropping the number of years you can be on the ballot from 15 to ten.  There was a recommendation to raise the number of people you could vote on from 10 to 12, but that was rejected.  "At some point, there has to be a line drawn," said Hall of Fame Vice President Brad Horn.  "To retain the exclusivity of the Baseball Hall of Fame, entering the Hall of Fame should be difficult."  Last year was the first year more than half the people who voted, voted for the maximum ten people. (thanks to Houston Mitchell)

 

That was in the Observer update today. I'm worried that Dave may follow suit, as the 15 year rule originally came from the baseball HoF. That would obviously be a big mistake unless the eligibility criterion was also changed to 40/20 instead of 35/15.



#407 sek69

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Posted 12 November 2015 - 09:44 PM

 

My main issue with giving such big weight to drawing power is you have no idea whether the numbers you're working with are bullshit or not. With a lot of current puro promotions, for example, there's a big trend towards inflating the numbers to claim a sell out every time even when that isn't close to being the case, and nobody cares enough to get the real numbers out there. In a way, drawing power is an even more subjective criteria than ring work because whereas there's not much uncertainty about whether you like a match or not, with drawing your basically taking a leap of faith that the numbers aren't fudged and you know the cause behind them.


Perfect example is Dragon Gate claiming more people at their Osaka show then New Japan Power Struggle even though New Japan looked like it had more people there.

WWE does it too. Just look how they were claiming 13,500 for NXT Brooklyn and they bumped it up to over 15k on the night of.

 

 

 

I don't know how it works in Japan, but WWE at least keeps accurate attendance records for the official books and a bullshit number for kayfabe purposes.

 

WM this year should be real interesting, since it was noted in the WON that the capacity at AT&T Stadium with the usual stage setup would be around 75,000 and they maybe could get to 90,000 legit without the elaborate staging (although Dave doubts they'd do that) but they still will claim 100,000.

 

It's one thing to bump up a show that size 5k or so, but a 25k kayfabe bump seems too exaggerated for them to seriously try to push.



#408 pol

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Posted 13 November 2015 - 12:22 AM

Wouldn't a list of candidates and the ability to vote Yes/No/Abstain on each of them individually work better than the current system? Obviously some kinks you'd need to work out, but it solves the problem of people voting in regions they aren't really qualified for.



#409 jushin muta liger

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Posted 13 November 2015 - 03:38 AM


 

My main issue with giving such big weight to drawing power is you have no idea whether the numbers you're working with are bullshit or not. With a lot of current puro promotions, for example, there's a big trend towards inflating the numbers to claim a sell out every time even when that isn't close to being the case, and nobody cares enough to get the real numbers out there. In a way, drawing power is an even more subjective criteria than ring work because whereas there's not much uncertainty about whether you like a match or not, with drawing your basically taking a leap of faith that the numbers aren't fudged and you know the cause behind them.

Perfect example is Dragon Gate claiming more people at their Osaka show then New Japan Power Struggle even though New Japan looked like it had more people there.

WWE does it too. Just look how they were claiming 13,500 for NXT Brooklyn and they bumped it up to over 15k on the night of.
 
 
 
I don't know how it works in Japan, but WWE at least keeps accurate attendance records for the official books and a bullshit number for kayfabe purposes.
 
WM this year should be real interesting, since it was noted in the WON that the capacity at AT&T Stadium with the usual stage setup would be around 75,000 and they maybe could get to 90,000 legit without the elaborate staging (although Dave doubts they'd do that) but they still will claim 100,000.
 
It's one thing to bump up a show that size 5k or so, but a 25k kayfabe bump seems too exaggerated for them to seriously try to push.

They showed the Mayor of Dallas in the Mania Pre Sale Show on Raw saying that they wanted to break the attendance record and that number for Cowboys Stadium is 108,713 from the 2010 NBA All Star game. So they might have to bump the figure by 30 to 35k instead of 25k in order to top it.

#410 shakla

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Posted 13 November 2015 - 04:01 AM

 

 

 

The Baseball Hall of Fame made some changes yesterday.  They are dropping the number of years you can be on the ballot from 15 to ten.  There was a recommendation to raise the number of people you could vote on from 10 to 12, but that was rejected.  "At some point, there has to be a line drawn," said Hall of Fame Vice President Brad Horn.  "To retain the exclusivity of the Baseball Hall of Fame, entering the Hall of Fame should be difficult."  Last year was the first year more than half the people who voted, voted for the maximum ten people. (thanks to Houston Mitchell)

 

That was in the Observer update today. I'm worried that Dave may follow suit, as the 15 year rule originally came from the baseball HoF. That would obviously be a big mistake unless the eligibility criterion was also changed to 40/20 instead of 35/15.

 

 

Wasn't this Baseball deal announced like a year ago?  At least with the years.  Those ballots are loaded with big names like Bonds and Clemens that some just won't vote for due to suspicions.

 

I know Dave has talked about how parts of the Observer HoF are modeled after Baseball's, but it doesn't have to adapt itself to their updates.  Considering people go on Dave's ballot awhile active, or 15-20+ years after they were last active, it would be a bad idea to implement this.  Dave should try to approach the historical categories like baseball's veterans committee to an extent, like a reset with years on the ballot.



#411 Al

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Posted 13 November 2015 - 08:52 AM

The Baseball Hall of Fame has clear lines of eligibility. Ten years in the majors, five full years after retirement. Without those parameters (especially the second part), I don't see how you can use the rest of the system as a guide. A.J. Styles is a good example of how it gets screwed up, where you have a candidate theoretically falling off the ballot before he's even finished filling out his resume. You can't put active wrestlers on the ballot and have a limited eligibility period. Ten vs. fifteen years is immaterial until that is sorted, IMO.

 

Limiting the ballot to ten votes isn't helping the baseball Hall either, and it's only tolerated because it's seen as a way to push those evil steroid users off the ballot. Wrestling doesn't have that problem, as I don't think there is a single candidate whose case hinges on their usage/non-usage. 

 

A wrestling HOF would be better off presented in two stages. A nomination stage which would be relatively open with candidates and perhaps where each group, the historians, active wrestlers, retired wrestlers, journalists, etc., could advance their candidates. Then a second election where those nominations, numbering about 25 or so, appear on a single ballot. You could adapt the system to determine how often a wrestler could get nominated. But I think it could clear up the system, give it focus, and make things fresh. Instead of a ballot of 12 or so candidates where you've got another 60 from another group, lucha voters could focus on 2-3 nominees and make their case strongly.



#412 shakla

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Posted 13 November 2015 - 01:20 PM

In the early 2000s, the PBA bowling Hall of Fame changed their ballot eligibility from being age 35 (or 37), so many years as a PBA member and having a few titles (varied from 1 to 3) to where you had to be retired from full-time competition for 5 years or 50 years old, with an increase standard in titles won.  Problem is, because you can still be competitive in your 40s/50s, none of the big names retired (some still haven't) and they didn't elect anyone for close to 10 years.  Including Norm Duke, who is a top 10 (if not top 5) all-time player.  Eventually, they took out the age/retirement guideline and just made it 20 years as a member with a specified number of wins. 

 

It's odd comparing bowling to wrestling, but you can do both at advanced ages and never totally give it up.  I dunno if you should model the Observer HoF after bowling tho. 



#413 Matt Farmer

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Posted 14 November 2015 - 05:15 PM

 

 

 

My main issue with giving such big weight to drawing power is you have no idea whether the numbers you're working with are bullshit or not. With a lot of current puro promotions, for example, there's a big trend towards inflating the numbers to claim a sell out every time even when that isn't close to being the case, and nobody cares enough to get the real numbers out there. In a way, drawing power is an even more subjective criteria than ring work because whereas there's not much uncertainty about whether you like a match or not, with drawing your basically taking a leap of faith that the numbers aren't fudged and you know the cause behind them.

Perfect example is Dragon Gate claiming more people at their Osaka show then New Japan Power Struggle even though New Japan looked like it had more people there.

WWE does it too. Just look how they were claiming 13,500 for NXT Brooklyn and they bumped it up to over 15k on the night of.
 
 
 
I don't know how it works in Japan, but WWE at least keeps accurate attendance records for the official books and a bullshit number for kayfabe purposes.
 
WM this year should be real interesting, since it was noted in the WON that the capacity at AT&T Stadium with the usual stage setup would be around 75,000 and they maybe could get to 90,000 legit without the elaborate staging (although Dave doubts they'd do that) but they still will claim 100,000.
 
It's one thing to bump up a show that size 5k or so, but a 25k kayfabe bump seems too exaggerated for them to seriously try to push.

They showed the Mayor of Dallas in the Mania Pre Sale Show on Raw saying that they wanted to break the attendance record and that number for Cowboys Stadium is 108,713 from the 2010 NBA All Star game. So they might have to bump the figure by 30 to 35k instead of 25k in order to top it.

 

There's a little mistake there, and even on Dave's part. The way AT&T Stadium is set up there are like 80,000 seats or so. When they put 108k into the building there were that many people in the building. But not all were seated or had a place to seat. The was the stadium is designed they have room for thousands and thousands of standing room only customers. So even with their production blocking 15,000 seats or more. They could probably put an close around 90,000 or so into the building. 

 

With the exception of their stage a wrestling event is really similar to the number they can put into a building for basketball. 



#414 PeteF3

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Posted 18 November 2015 - 05:40 PM

WWE would be wise to skip the stage for WM--with that giant video board they don't need one.






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