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WWE Network finally happening


flyonthewall2983

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Court Bauer is still saying that WWE doesn't have a business plan for their network and Vince hasn't even thought about the programming schedule yet. Court claims Vince even tried to buy Universal HD from Viacom. :o

So Vince thought Viacom owned it... or is Court confused? Since Vince's primary tv partner (Comcast / NBC Universal) owns Universal HD, it's basically impossible to think that Vince (and/or people in the WWE) don't know that Universal HD = Universal.

 

I kinda call bullshit on that one. :)

Sorry, that was *me* getting mixed up, as Viacom buying Bellator was mentioned earlier in the interview and I'm not that familiar with the conglomerate media structure in America. Court said Vince had discussions with Bonnie Hammer about it, but they didn't get very far.

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I'm scratching my head on part of this:

 

For his part, Alvarez painted a bleak picture in this week's F4W Newsletter when talking about the network's chances of getting decent clearance and getting to their initial goal of 40 million homes (a figure which is generally seen as an extremely ambitious goal):

 

Aside from a deal with InDemand, there are zero deals in place with any other providers anywhere in the United States, which is one of the main reasons people inside WWE are so concerned about the proposed start date.

Aside from InDemand, exactly how many deals does the WWE need to enter into to get to 40M homes?

 

Well...

 

iN DEMAND L.L.C. is owned by:

 

Comcast iN DEMAND Holdings, Inc.

Cox Communications Holdings, Inc.

Time Warner Entertainment - Advance/Newhouse Partnership (a JV of Time Warner Cable and Advance/Newhouse/Bright House)

 

Which means it's partners are:

 

http://www.ncta.com/Stats/TopMSOs.aspx

 

22,525,000 Comcast Corporation

12,235,000 Time Warner Cable, Inc.

4,838,000 Cox Communications, Inc.

2,139,000 Bright House Networks LLC

-------------------------------------------------

41,737,000 iN DEMAND households

 

I'll be dipped in shit... there's your 40M households!

 

I suspect that's *exactly* why the WWE tossed out 40M as their launch goal number: they know how many the iN DEMAND folks have, and a deal there gets them to that number.

 

I'm not saying they will be *successful* in getting a deal with iN DEMAND. But remember this is the quote from Super Chico:

 

Aside from a deal with InDemand, there are zero deals in place with any other providers anywhere in the United States, which is one of the main reasons people inside WWE are so concerned about the proposed start date.

Well, if they get a deal with iN DEMAND, they have their 40M.

 

In turn, we've got Court Bauer tossing this gem out:

 

Former WWE writer and television industry insider Court Bauer assessed in a recent interview with Bryan Alvarez that the company was going to have to seek out bottom-of-the-barrel cable operators because the bigger names have no interest.

 

He also thought the company would have trouble branding themselves because they were not a pure sport, rather sports entertainment.

 

This could really backfire, you're only going to have a few cable providers going for it, maybe Verizon, maybe DirectTV, but you're not going to have a lot of the big guys in the mix. They want to be in bed withe like the NFL Network but these guys want nothing to do with them. They also want to be seen as a sports brand, but they're not a sports brand, are they? So, its like, what are they?

19,433,000 DirecTV

3,848,000 Verizon

------------------------

23,281,000 Households

 

So if Chico is right on "a deal with InDemand", and if Court is right on "maybe Verizon, maybe DirectTV"... you're at 65,018,000 households.

 

I'm not saying they're going to get deals with iN DEMAND, Verizon and DirecTV. That would be Chico and Court. But good reporting (in the case of Chico) and good commentary (in the case of Court) would be to... you know...

 

Attach some numbers to what they're talking about.

 

They're not hard to find either. The Google is your friend, let alone the fact that several of us have been tossing the numbers around with links and shit.

 

The other important thing *isn't* just the Households. It's not really hard to get households. It's harder to get on Basic and get a decent rights fee. And those are the things that the WWE is likely running into. 40M or 90M homes doesn't mean anything if you're not on basic and are not getting a $0.08 fee per household.

 

On the other hand, if we're talking about 40M households as the goal, I'll go back to this chart again:

 

http://www.ncta.com/Stats/TopMSOs.aspx

 

22,525,000 Comcast Corporation

12,235,000 Time Warner Cable, Inc.

4,838,000 Cox Communications, Inc.

2,139,000 Bright House Networks LLC

-------------------------------------------------

41,737,000 iN DEMAND households

 

WWE Programing airs where? I'm trying to remember what I wrote about this before... that's right:

 

WWE Raw = USA Network = Comcast

WWE SmackDown = Syfy = Comcast

WWE Tough Enough = USA Network = Comcast

 

Comcast.

 

54% of the households needed to get to 40M are controlled by the company that the WWE is in bed with.

 

Hmmm...

 

Again, for the 14th time... I'm not saying that the WWE is going to cut a deal with iN DEMAND and other major providers like DirecTV, Verizon, ATT, etc. (though it should be their goal)... nor that they will get onto Basic with each of the providers (though that should be their goal)... or that they'll get $0.08 per Basic household (though that *really* should be their baseline goal, not some insanely higher number).

 

But if you're going to throw shit around, at least support it with the simple info that's out there in the public. Simply finding a way to cut a deal even with *Comcast* alone on the side as a Basic channel at $0.08 per household would be a major start on the path to 40M homes. It also would be $21,624,000 in revenue from Rights Fees before we talk about advertising revenue (which admittedly will not be gangbusters but also won't be $0.00) or infomercial revenue (which many major cable companies do for 6 or so hours a day, which indicates it's not an insignificant revenue stream).

 

That's Comcast, at a time when Comcast it looking for programing on it own channels given the brutal nature of NBC's primetime wasteland... and Versus / NBC Sports stuck with the horrid NHL $200M a year deal as their anchor sport... you'd think in terms of programing that the WWE has some value to Comcast to stick around. I'm a broken record on this, but the WWE should have done a joint venture with Viacom when Raw was over there... and should have been working on a JV for a channel with Comcast every since they moved back. Comcast has muscle to get on other providers, and also has a massive advertising department to see ads on all sorts of programing... including Wrestling Programing.

 

I don't have confidence in the WWE pulling this off. But it's not because the WWE Channel concept can't be pulled off. It's because the WWE haven't been very smart in handling it, and I don't have a great deal of confidence that they will smarten up. That said, it's not something that is all that hard, especially given (i) the models out there to learn from, (ii) the potential partners out there to work with, and (iii) the money the WWE has had to throw at it.

 

As a last side note on (iii):

 

$10,954,000 - Fiscal Year ending 04/30/04

$24,716,000 - Fiscal Year ending 04/30/05

$50,064,000 - Fiscal Year ending 04/30/06

$51,017,000 - Eight Months ending 12/31/06 (bridge period due to change in FY calendar)

$68,664,000 - Fiscal Year ending 12/31/07

$81,397,000 - Fiscal Year ending 12/31/08

$82,269,000 - Fiscal Year ending 12/31/09

$83,643,000 - Fiscal Year ending 12/31/10

$38,879,000 - Nine Months ending 09/30/11 (current FY to date)

------------------------

$491,603,000

 

Those would be the dividends the WWE has paid out over the years.

 

$315,973,00 from 2007-10 when they really kicked it up.

 

I'm not sure what the benefit to the company it's been to toss that level of dividend out there. I know there's a benefit to the McMahons (a good chunk of that has gone into their pockets), and there no doubt is a small benefit to the share price in have a cash return for owning the shares. But if the company had been more modest in retaining even say... half of that amount, they would be sitting on:

 

$58M Cash and cash equivalents (as of 9/30/11)

$104M Short-term investments (as of 9/30/11)

$150M not paid in dividends

---------

$312M in Cash, cash equivalents & Short-term investments

 

That's assuming the non-paid dividends would have been rolled into Short-term investments.

 

Or better year, the company had been using those non-dividends and a chunk of the Short-term investments to fund creating the channel back in 2007.

 

John

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Yeah, I think the problem won't be getting enough providers, but getting a decent carriage fee. I really think by announcing their launch date before getting deals in place that they've killed their negotiating leverage. When push comes to shove I can see them forced to provide it for free to providers (like Oprah's network), in order to get it into a decent number of homes for April.

 

WWE is sitting on $162.8M of cash, cash equivalents and short term assets, which should be enough to fund the network for a few years. Of course, a few years ago they had $266.4M with much of that $100+M being frittered away on the dividend that their profits couldn't cover.

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WWE is sitting on $162.8M of cash, cash equivalents and short term assets, which should be enough to fund the network for a few years. Of course, a few years ago they had $266.4M with much of that $100+M being frittered away on the dividend that their profits couldn't cover.

I don't think they want to drop that $150M+ of cash/cash equivalents and short term assets a heck of a lot lower given the economy. Which is probably why Vince tossed out the borrowing aspect.

 

Interest rates are extremely low, so if you have to borrow, it's not a bad time. There probably are also some fed and/or local "job creation" tax incentives they can tap into with the WWE Net, either on the books or likely to come in the next few years (since they seem to be the only "job creation" things that can get passed).

 

They also can reduce the dividend rate, or sell some stock which over time they've bought back. They probably don't want to do either of those.

 

I'm mixed on announcing a lauch. At some point they needed to do that to indicate they're serious. April is a tough time because they appear not to have solid plans. I frankly think the time you would have wanted was January-ish because of the Road to Mania aspect of programing, and also because of Rock this year. Lots of things you could do in terms of programing there for initial ratings.

 

But to do January, you needed to have your shit together more than a year ago.

 

John

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  • 4 weeks later...

MAJOR WWE NETWORK UPDATE

by Mike Johnson @ 8:46 PM on 1/9/2012

 

According to several people I spoke to today, the word at Raw was that WWE will be pushing the debut of the WWE Network back several months until the Fall of 2012.

The reason for the push back is that the company just won't have the infrastructure needed in place by the originally planned launch date of 4/1 to tie it into Wrestlemania weekend. It was described to me as a decision the company didn't want to make but one that they "had to make" for the long term good of the Network's viability.

 

I haven't heard of a new official launch date beyond "The Fall." While 4/1 was the original planned launch, the company never officially announced it to the public.

 

I was told that projects that were currently being produced for the Network will go forward as planned, as the feeling is they can be kept "in the can" and ready to go when the Network launches.

 

There had been no word on any cable or satellite clearances for the WWE Network as of this writing.

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So the alleged iNDemand deal means...what, then?

Most likely the ability to deal collectively with four cable companies rather than individually with them, especially since the WWF has a long history of dealing with them on the PPV side.

 

Of course another example of the WWE being too late to the well: their leverage on PPV is down compared to what it once was, obviously due to their own declining buys and also UFC moving ahead of them in terms of buys.

 

John

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So how bad is this Legends House going to be?

 

There's that level of "so bad it's good"... but this is the WWE, so I'm not sold they're going to hit that level and instead sink to:

 

"Damn this is really stupid." *click*

 

John

It's reality television. By definition it's going to be awful.
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